With technology growing so rapidly, we can be can assume it will continue to grow throughout the rest of our lives. The ways in which technology may change the world are simply mind boggling. Although we think that technology will continue to advance as it has already, some attempt to predict when certain technology is going to be available. One such person is Ray Kurzweil, an American computer scientist who is famous for accurately predicting the advances of future technology.
A prime example of all these predictions is that a computer would be able to defeat a world chess champion, which Kurzweil predicted in 1990. Not only was Kurzweil’s chess prediction completely accurate, he was may other predictions that seem to follow suit in their accuracy. Kurzweil predicts that eventually computers will become so far advanced that they will cure all disease, and far out-smart the most intelligent human. There seem to be many positives that could arise from these technological advances. Once such positive could be to lessen the need for disease, and suffering among the human race. If we, as a species, could eliminate cancer-like illnesses; it could drastically improve the condition of many individuals who suffer on a daily basis. From a humanitarian perspective, this type of technology could have great utility. Another aspect of the technological advances Kurzweil predicts is the possible uses of artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence, in theory, could be used to solve problems that are too difficult for human beings to solve. This could create unbound possibilities when it comes to the many issues that face humanity, such as long distance space travel, or the previously mentioned issue of curing disease. While Kurzweil’s predictions are impressive there is some criticism of Kurzweil to consider.
While Kurzweil boasts a rather impressive record when it comes to making predictions, many of his predictions are quite broad, and often not very hard to predict. For example in 1990 he predicted the following --this from Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil-- “PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet (by 2010).” This is a good example of a prediction that sounds jaw dropping to those unfamiliar with technology, but by the year 1990 the first search modern search engine had already been developed,“The first search engine created was Archie, created in 1990 by Alan Emtage, a student at McGill University in Montreal.” This from History of Search Engines: From 1945 to Google Today. It is also well known that wireless technology was invented by Nikola Tesla and this was in the early 20th century (possibly late 19th century). It is also well known that the Internet by 1990 was not a new concept. Given that information, it wouldn't be all that difficult to make that prediction, considering we already had all the technology to do it at the time of his prediction. Kurzweil also predicted that (by 2018) “10^13 bits (=10 TB) of computer memory—roughly the equivalent of the memory space in a single human brain—will cost $1000.” This claim from Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil, is rather misleading. The following is from What is the Memory Capacity of a Human Brain?, “Bringing this back to the human brain, according to a 2010 article in Scientific American, the memory capacity of the human brain was reported to have the equivalent of 2.5 petabytes of memory capacity. As a number, a “petabyte” means 1024 terabytes or a million gigabytes, so the average adult human brain has the ability to store the equivalent of 2.5 million gigabytes digital memory.” The article goes on to say, “The human brain is indeed a marvel, with more capabilities than most of us can imagine. As more studies are coming out – it is only a matter of time until we truly find out how much the human brain can store.” This article clearly implies that we do not know how much storage capacity the human brain has. Also, Kurzweil believes we as a society are heading to a singularity, here is an objection to his claim. From, The Brain Is Not Computable, “Miguel Nicolelis, a top neuroscientist at Duke University, says computers will never replicate the human brain and that the technological Singularity is “a bunch of hot air.”” Miguel Nicolelis has presented a very clear objection to Kurzweil’s claim about the singularity.
While technology can be arguably predictable at times, and at other times arguably unpredictable, it is still extraordinary that we are making rapid technological advances. Technology is a huge aspect of life today, and will only continue to grow. Relying on technology is something that could be helpful due to everything that it can help us with such as curing cancer and other medical diseases. Overall, technology could significantly improve/extend the life that humans live.
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